Election Preview Part 2: VA Congressional Races

Stratford Library Association

Stratford Library Association

Welcome to the RVA Politics Election Preview! I’ll cover one big race (big for VA/Richmond at least) each day this week:

Next week Virginia will select one of its United States Senators and all 11 members of its delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives. I hate to burst the election balloon, but most of these races are pretty much settled; that’s how it is for an institution that offers a roughly 90% return rate. American Democracy: It Works! Sort of.

Anyway, here's my take on the races, both settled and unsettled. (Below, I use shorthand for the 11 Congressional districts – so VA09 for the 9th District in southwest VA.)

First of all, poor Daniel Gade took the job no one wanted. Virginia is an increasingly blue state that has been at the leading edge of a national, anti-Trump Blue Wave. With a popular incumbent in Mark Warner, most of the heavy hitters in the Republican Party preferred to wait for the Governor’s race next year. At least this year, we can say they were right to do so; Warner should cruise to victory.

There is some good news for the GOP. In VA09, Morgan Griffith is running unopposed. In nearby VA06, his fellow incumbent Ben Cline might as well be; Cline’s Democratic opponent, Nicholas Betts, has been out-fundraised by a 15 to 1 margin. Dem Qasim Rashid has offered a much more impressive challenge in VA01, but incumbent Rob Wittman should still win that race. (Look for Rashid’s name to be floated for future elections for state legislator.)

On the Democratic side, incumbents Bobby Scott (VA03), Don McEachin (VA04), Don Beyer (VA08), and Gerry Connolly (VA11) should have no problem holding off Republican challenges; their seats, all in the urban corridor running from northern VA down through Virginia Beach, are all now reliably Democratic. Even rookie incumbent Jennifer Wexton (VA10) should win easily in her NoVA district.

That leaves three races that reflect the changing nature of the state. In ascending order of interest:

VA02 features a rematch of the last election, in which Elaine Luria defeated then-incumbent Republican Scott Taylor. Rematches can be a good idea, but only if there’s some kind of dynamic that favors the challenger, like a demographic change that finally gets them over the hump. And yet the demographics of this district, like the rest of the state, is moving in the Democratic direction. There’s little reason to see why the 2nd district should have changed their mind on Taylor, a guy they rejected two years ago. So this is most likely Luria’s seat next year.

VA07 features a tougher battle for incumbent Dem Abigail Spanberger, but again demographics matter. Republican state legislator Nick Freitas is generally popular among Republicans, but there are fewer and fewer of those in the district. The heart of that district, the Chesterfield suburbs, continue to become less conservative as part of a national trend. More and more suburban voters, like their urban counterparts, are on the Democratic side of key national issues like healthcare and gun rights. The national forecasters have moved Spanberger (and Luria) to the “likely win” column, and I agree.

This brings us to the state’s most fascinating race this year: Cameron Webb vs. Bob Good in VA05. Good defeated oddball incumbent Denver Riggleman in the Republican primary using – well, let’s say some questionable tactics. Since then Good has seemed to step on a rake at every opportunity; his ongoing paperwork woes reflect a rookie campaign that is still finding its footing. On the other hand, Webb is a political natural, with a great message and huge fundraising totals. This race is probably the biggest test this year of a “demographics is destiny” argument. Good's stumbling may have put a traditionally Republican-leaning district in play, but it’s still a VERY conservative district that Riggleman won by 20,000 votes just two years ago. I still think there are enough conservatives here to push Good to a narrow victory, although I’ll qualify by saying it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if Webb pulled off the upset. (A Webb victory would mean good things for the Dems nationally.) This race could be a close one, to be decided days after the election.

Bottom line: not much, if anything, changes in our Congressional delegation. That’s the norm for Congressional races in most states! As VA stabilizes into its current demographic configuration, that shouldn’t be surprising. It’s OK - there will be enough “fun” elsewhere to occupy us.

Richard MeagherComment