Election Preview Part 1: Presidential Race

Stratford Library Association

Stratford Library Association

Welcome to the RVA Politics Election Preview! I’ll cover one big race (big for VA/Richmond at least) each day this week:

Let’s get the obvious point out of the way first: Joe Biden is very likely to win.

I don’t think anyone thinks Biden will lose the popular vote. He's way ahead in the polls, and consistently so — with at least a 6-point lead since June. People who complain about the surprise result of the 2016 election probably forget that the 2016 polls were mostly accurate in aggregate; Clinton did win the popular vote as predicted. Trump has never been favored by a majority of Americans, and four years in office have made him less popular.

But, of course, 2020 is a year unlike any other, leading to an election plagued (literally) by uncertainty. The pandemic has led states to rapidly implement early voting, making it hard to predict turnout. Mail ballots are an important option for many at a time that the US Postal Service is reeling from service cuts and possible political interference. In general, Trump’s chaotic campaign and administration often seem to be working to further stoke that uncertainty whenever possible.

We can’t say Biden is a lock, especially after 2016. So what is Trump's path to victory?

  • First, a closer popular vote than predicted would help. Still, this is not super-likely. Some folks suggested that 2016 revealed a “Bradley effect” where “shy Trump” voters told pollsters they would never vote for an undesirable like Trump, but still pulled the lever for him in the end. There’s actually not much evidence that this was the case, though; instead, it was that undecided voters swung more towards Trump than Clinton in 2016. There are fewer of those undecideds this year, and they are probably less inclined to be Trump voters.

  • Even if the national race stays in Biden’s favor, closer votes in a few key swing states would help. Again, Trump won in 2016 despite a clear national majority for Clinton because of our peculiar election structure. Rather than a national election, we really have 51 smaller elections, of which candidates must win some kind of oddly-constructed majority. If state polls in PA or MI are off by a little more than the national ones, Trump might find a way to win the Electoral College again.

  • Still, to win the EC, Trump probably needs to rely on his allies in these states, both statewide officials and local folks, to get involved in some election shenanigans. These range from the delivery of too few voting machines to voter intimidation and misinformation. Thanks to our under-resourced, underdeveloped, patchwork electoral system, election problems happen every November like clockwork. Sometimes these problems are accidents, like a power failure; sometimes it’s... well, less-accidental. The Republicans tend to be better at these kinds of tactics because our most vulnerable voters (low income and minority) vote Democratic; plus the GOP is generally better at ruthless politics. Election lawyers will be busy.

  • One path that Trump has never ruled out: challenge the results. Raise questions about -- and file legal challenges to -- ballots in states where the race is close. Put enough electors in play to delay any kind of decisive victory from the Biden campaign. If you can somehow get a case to the Supreme Court, you can always hope for another legal travesty like Bush v Gore.

A lot has to fall Trump’s way for him to stay in the White House, but we’ve obviously underestimated him before. Biden’s best bet is a clear, sweeping national victory, plus a big enough margin in any swing states that ballot challenges and the inevitable misinformation from Trump’s side fall on deaf ears.

Will we know on election night? Probably not for sure, for a few reasons. Some states do not count early votes. Plus there’s sure to be long lines at the polls due to social distancing rules. (Remember, if you’re in line to vote when polls close, you can still vote.) So we may see extended polling hours. Finally, the major news organizations are likely to be gun shy about calling races too early.

Still, we can probably get a sense late on Election Night whether things are going well for Biden or not. Florida, for example, is an East Coast battleground state that does count early ballots. If Biden is well ahead in early counts there we’ll have a strong indicator of the rest of the election. If, on the other hand, Florida – and the election as a whole – is completely up in the air, then that’s a good sign for Trump. Because of HOW we would have to win, though, I’m not so sure that’s a good sign for the rest of us.

Buckle up.

Richard MeagherComment