Election Preview Part 3: RVA City Council races

Stratford Library Association

Stratford Library Association

Welcome to the RVA Politics Election Preview! I’ll cover one big race (big for VA/Richmond at least) each day this week:

Despite the sometimes deafening noise of the national election, most folks in Richmond know that they are also choosing their city’s legislature this fall. The Mayor’s race remains the most important for the city. But while City Council has often deferred to the executive branch, their defeat of the Navy Hill development project earlier this year suggests that they at least remain a powerful counter to a mayoral agenda.

And after this election, the Council’s culture could change dramatically. As I wrote earlier this fall, a wave of challengers suggest a possible new role of Council next year, part of a broader shift in the country towards more progressive policies in urban areas.

As a reminder, Council members are elected to represent a legislative district within the city borders. Here's my take on the 9 separate district races:

Kristen Larson (4th District) and Mike Jones (9th) are running unopposed. That’s not great for democracy! But both are popular in their districts, so it’s understandable that no one stepped up to challenge them. Both also could be described as consensus politicians, willing work with anyone on the Council to get stuff done. Their approach suggests dramatic change may come elsewhere, although Jones was an outspoken supporter of the city’s protesters and a police reform agenda (more on that in a moment).

Two other incumbents are likely to return. Andreas Addison (1st) is facing a challenge from business owner Mike Gray. (The less said about his other challenger, Mike Dickinson, the better.) Gray seems well-intentioned; but beyond Addison’s support of Navy Hill, there’s not much of a case to make against him.

Stephanie Lynch (5th) also has incumbency on her side, but might be considered more vulnerable since she’s only been in office for a year. Still, her challengers are familiar faces from last year’s special election, Nick Da Silva and Jer'Mykeal McCoy (plus maybe Mamie Taylor, although she hasn’t reported any fundraising totals). They may be fine candidates, but they also have little of a case to make against Lynch; a conservative conceivably could complain about her full-throated support of RVA protestors, but the 5th doesn’t produce many of those type of candidates – or voter.

There are two open seats where we are guaranteed new faces to replace the mayoral candidate Kim Gray and the retiring Chris Hilbert. Not much separates Katherine Jordan and Tavarris Spinks in the 2nd. Jordan’s brand is as more of schools advocate, while Spinks offers a broader progressive platform, including police reform. I wouldn’t be surprised if either candidate won, although Spinks– a longtime Democratic Party volunteer– probably has a slight edge with stronger fundraising and endorsements from state Dems. Both are likely to more active and progressive than Gray, the Council member who “mastered the art of saying no”.

In the 3rd, there is a similar dynamic of varied shades of progressivism aligned along the same issues. Willie Hilliard and Ann-Frances Lambert are probably more willing to advocate policing reform than Elaine Summerfield, who remains more focused on RPS. The three -way race here is even harder to predict, although Lambert seems to be threading the needle of the reformer who also gets establishment support. She’s been endorsed by realtors and state Dems, and her fundraising has surged lately, so she’s the most likely bet to win.

The most interesting races are the final three districts, where entrenched incumbents face direct challenges from this progressive wave. Council President Cynthia Newbille faces Joseph Rogers (7th) and fellow veteran Ellen Robertson is running against Allan-Charles Chipman (6th). It’s an uphill climb for both challengers, although Robertson is clearly more vulnerable; she has less of a reputation for reaching out to new folks in her district. Robertson held off a similar challenge four years ago, but how strong does her – and Newbille’s -- support remain? If I had to bet, I’d go with one last gasp for the old heads; either way, it’s going to be close in the 6th for sure.

Finally, there’s the battle royale of Amy Wentz vs. incumbent Reva Trammell in the 8th District. As I wrote in Style last month,

Amy Wentz has been campaigning for years to dislodge Trammell... [hoping] that the networks these entrenched politicians have built are too insular and ossified to protect their incumbency. Wentz particularly has argued that too many people are currently left out of Trammell’s circle. Her success in convincing some voters of this has made the 8th the most expensive race in the city, second only to the mayoral election.

My money is on Amy's impressive shoe leather campaign, but this race more than any other will show just how strong the old machinery is, throughout the city.

Still, here’s the large grain of salt: council districts are difficult to read. The predicted high turnout for our national election could lead to a greater number of uninformed local voters unsure about who to choose. (I’ve suggested that this uncertainty may contribute to Richmond’s high rate of unreturned absentee ballots.) Incumbency always matters, of course, but so do personal relationships and political alliances that run deep in a district and may be unclear to outsiders. It’s just hard to know what's happening on the ground until you see the results.

Expect some uncertainty about the results for some of these districts on Election Night. In 2016, Addison won the 1st by barely 200 votes; if any races are similarly tight, we may not know the outcome until the final mail-ins and provisionals are reported on Friday afternoon.

No matter what, though, Council will have some new blood next year. More progressive candidates in the 2nd and 3rd are likely to join Jones and Lynch in calling for at least some kind of police reform, and maybe more. If enough seats change hands, the progressives could form the first council bloc vote in many years. Council could start driving a real policy agenda, covering anything from public housing and gentrification to police reform. (Check out this amazing student zine for what’s at stake.) Change is coming to Council; we’ll see next week just how much.

Richard MeagherComment