2021 Election Preview Part 4: How T-Mac Can Win

https://wtop.com/virginia/2021/06/va-democratic-primary-picks-candidates-for-governor-lieutenant-governor-attorney-general/

It’s the RVAPolitics 2021 Election Preview! I’ll be looking at aspects of the election in 5 parts over the next 2 weeks:

 ———————-

Yesterday, I made the case a Youngkin victory; today I make the case for his opponent.

How Terry McAuliffe wins is pretty simple, actually: don’t screw it up.

T-Mac is the Democrat in a state that has become increasingly Democratic. Demographic shifts have led to increased population in Virginia’s urban corridor, running from NoVA through Richmond and out to the beach cities, as the rural population has shrunk. Democrats have not lost a statewide election in Virginia since Republican Bob McDonnell won the Governor’s race in 2009.

Still, Glenn Youngkin is the closest thing to McDonnell the Republicans have offered since then: a telegenic, almost blandly innocuous white guy who avoids any inflammatory rhetoric while offering the policies Republicans want. More importantly, Youngkin is a newcomer to politics, with all the pros and cons that status has to offer. He has no record to run on, but also nothing to pin on him. Nobody knew who he was just a few months ago.

This is why T-Mac’s campaign has obsessively tried to tie their opponent to Donald Trump. This “Trumpkin” strategy has its upsides – remind voters that no matter how blandly handsome the dude is, he is still fronting for the party of insurrection and abortion bans. But you also run the risk of helping to get his name out there. There are plenty of Republican voters in this state who are fired up to vote for a Trump surrogate.

One thing you can count on from T-Mac: the guy can raise money. But Youngkin has kept up, with both major-party candidates bringing in campaign money at a record pace. The story that T-Mac’s people pushed through the Democratic primary season, that his inevitable connections and money machine would crush the Republicans in a blue state, has not played out.

The big danger for T-Mac is a lack of Democratic enthusiasm. You have probably heard this story: with Trump out of office, the Blue Wave will subside. Moderate Dems and the suburban never-Trumpers who supported them over Republican extremism will bounce-back to the GOP after too many progressive changes in the state. Democratic Party infighting and malaise at the national level poisons the party brand, further driving down their voter turnout in our weird off-off-year election.

If Democratic Party enthusiasm is the key, then boy did they get the wrong candidate. Progressives in Virginia are generally annoyed at T-Mac’s entire existence. Some may still be angry about his jumping back in line in the primary (over two women of color), or his recent waffling on police reform. Combined with his pro-business gladhanding, plus his party’s mixed record on climate change efforts, it’s a lot for them to swallow.

And they do have another option: Princess Blanding is on the ballot. T-Mac’s campaign, however, has had no interest in engaging with Blanding, or even co-opting her ideas and policies. Clearly they see no threat from a defecting left; they had better hope they are right.

The “Dems in Disarray” trope is a perennial one, and it may be overstated in a state where the legislative branch has accomplished a lot in the last few years. Odds are still good the lamenting is just noise, and as with the California recall, the Democrat will win by a decisive margin despite the national mood.

That would be my bet; still, I’ve been wrong before. If T-Mac loses, the Democrats will only have themselves to blame. (Although they will surely blame progressives and Blanding.)

Richard MeagherComment