2021 Election Preview Part 3: How Youngkin Can Win

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/reskilling-for-a-changing-economy-a-discussion-with-glenn-youngkin

It’s the RVAPolitics 2021 Election Preview! I’ll be looking at aspects of the election in 5 parts over the next 2 weeks:

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I’ve split my preview of the Governor’s race into two parts. Today: how Youngkin can win.

We might call this 3 Simple Rules for Winning my Governorship:

 1. Run a reasonably solid campaign.

We can check this one off. Youngkin, a political neophyte, has been surprisingly good as a campaigner. There have been no gaffes or dumb moments at the debates or in public appearances; while he’s not exactly a natural politician, he hasn’t been a complete amateur.

And he seems to have solved one of his key problems, which is low name recognition. Thanks to his ability to keep pace with the Democrats in terms of fundraising, his face is on screen constantly. (Plus his name is in grassy fields all over the state. Most campaign pros think yard signs are a waste of money, but I think they can be useful when you are an unknown.)

One other thing to watch: Youngkin was a surprise winner of the Republican primary. While we don’t have good data about it, one suggestion at the time was that he was a popular choice among Virginia’s evangelical population. I haven’t seen much reporting about his campaign working the churches, but if Republicans do a good job this year of turning out the evangelical vote for Glenn, it could play a major role in giving him a victory.

2. Take advantage of opponent’s negatives.

 Republicans all over the state are hoping that the Blue Wave has subsided now that Trump is out of office. Youngkin is probably hoping that Democratic fault lines provide an opening for him. 

It helps that Democrat Terry McAuliffe was not the most exciting choice for his party’s nominee. He jumped in front of more progressive alternatives (not to mention two women of color) in the primary. Since then he’s flip-flopped on opposition to qualified immunity, the law that makes it almost impossible to hold police accountable for misconduct, and generally done T-Mac things. 

Plus: there is an additional choice on the ballot. Princess Blanding’s Liberation Party candidacy provides an out for progressives who are turned off by T-Mac, and could knock a few percentage points off of his final vote total. (Neither major-party candidate seems interested in engaging with Blanding, which is both their and our loss.) 

This dynamic has led to the oddest moment the campaign: Glenn Youngkin criticizing T-Mac for his “corrupt alliance with Dominion Power.” Glenn Youngkin, storming the barricades on the way to his million-dollar horse farm!

3. Mobilize grievance.

Youngkin’s strategy over the final stretch has been clear: talk about “parental control” in the schools. T-Mac handed him a huge opportunity with his poorly phrased debate statement, but this was probably the plan all along.

The education issue checks a lot of boxes for the Republicans. First, they can appeal to the anti-vax and anti-mask fringe, plus all of the parents who are more justifiably frustrated with the way school systems have handled the pandemic. More importantly, they can ride the “Critical Race Theory!” wave and appeal to white grievance, which is probably the key mobilizing force in Republican politics over the past half-century. (Google “Nixon Southern Strategy” if you don’t believe me.) It also might bring in those prized evangelicals, for whom “parental control” is always in tension with their too-liberal public school systems.

Youngkin’s key challenge this entire race has been how to navigate the dangerous waters between never-Trump moderates and pro-Trump base, and win back those suburban voters who have defected to the Democrats during the Trump era. The ed issue offers his best way through those waters. If it works, he’s Governor in January.

Tomorrow: how the other guy wins.

Richard MeagherComment